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Location is always a service that is an enhancement to an application. Google has smartly added it to its Maps features to tie into its Google service - Google Talk and Gmail - giving it another differentiator. The service uses cell tower locations and satellite GPS to get locations. The service also offers communication via SMS for ubiquity. The real goal is to greater personalize your Google applications to provide stickiness, eye balls and advertising dollars. The plan effectively does this via free service, usefulness, peer driven behavior, concern over loved ones' locations, and alleviating privacy concerns. It also gives the average wireless user one more reason to buy a smart phone and a data plan. Another one of Google's indirect goals.

"User Survey Analysis: The Next-Generation Communications Consumer, United States, 2020" (11 country reports)

"Forecast: GPS-Enabled Devices, Worldwide, 2004-2012" ]]> General Fri, 13 Feb 2009 11:53:46 -0500
The service being offered is a premium version of the $10 a month landline service that T-Mobile offers. The problem is that many of these services are already offered on a cellphone, or can be obtained from other means such as the internet or TV - so why pay the extra $35 to obtain these services? The service is a good idea and offers convenience to the end user, but it has to provide some tangible benefit, such as free texting to any Verizon phone, low cost voice - such as what T-Mobile has done - or a wide variety of unique applications, as in the case of the iphone.]]> General Wed, 11 Feb 2009 09:23:59 -0500 Gartner Blog Network, a shiny new vehicle with an extra row of seats and room for the whole family of Gartner bloggers. They're over there with their heads leaning out the window at 80 miles an hour, tongues a-wagging.

For more on the future of Communications, check out these analyst blogs:
o Nick Jones (Mobile Computing and Innovation)
o Lydia Leong (Cloud Computing, Internet Infrastructure, and Data Center Management)
o Eric Goodness (Managed and Professional Network Services)
And also these folks:
o John Pescatore (Network Security)
o Tom Austin (Collaboration, Social Software and Innovative Thinking)
o Mike McGuire (Media)
o Jeffrey Mann (Collaboration, Social Software)

See you over there!]]> General Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:20:43 -0500
In the last few years, AES Eletropaulo, like other power utilities in the world, has been largely investing in their fiber optic infrastructure to provide broadband access through their power lines using BPL technology - Broadband Power Line - that permits bandwidth of up to 80 MB and internet access. Their 2,000-kilometer fiber optic network covers key neighborhoods in the city, such as Moema, Pinheiros and Cerqueira Cesar, reaching 300 buildings, or 15,000 sites today. AES Eletropaulo Telecom have no plans to be a consumer service provider. Its business model is still providing backhaul or infrastructure to carriers in the region interested in using their capillarity in terms of penetration. No specific deal with any carrier is yet announced, but Eletropaulo is already running trials with 150 end users. BPL broadband is still not regulated in Brazil, but it is expected to be regulated soon, so the company is just in time with their plans to start commercial offerings to consumers in 2009.

Broadband in Brazil and especially in the main metropolitan bulks is facing inflated expectations (see "Dataquest Insight: Consumer Broadband in Brazil 2007, Where Next?"). Other carriers such as Telefonica have also implemented their own fiber optic infrastructure in other rich pocket neighborhoods of Sao Paulo city , such as Jardins. And during 2008, the mobile operators have focused their 3G technology launch offer on mobile broadband, with most of the new connections of such technology going to broadband access.

This diversity of offers will certainly drive an increase in the bandwidth-speed usage rather than reduce prices. (see "Dataquest Insight – The Future of Residential Broadband Internet Access Speeds"). The city today has Fiber Broadband connections going up to 30 Mbps; cable packages that include voice over IP and video, reaching 12 Mbps speeds; DSL packages going up to 8Mbps; and 3G Mobile broadband offering speeds between 1 and 7 Mbps - although the 80Mbps promised by BPL as a shared speed is hard to maintain consistently.

For a large country such as Brazil, this is a positive initiative, especially once several other cities and other electric energy companies can follow the example and start these types of offers. The country has 15% penetration of consumer broadband and a lot of space to growth, mainly in the rural and non metropolitan areas. BPL broadband cases throughout the world have not succeeded in other markets. If Eletropaulo succeeds on their initiative and business models with the carriers, it will make the BPL industry extremely happy.

As a reminder that broadband needs to grow hand in hand with PC availability, see "Forecast - PC Installed Base Worldwide 2004-20012". And on the topic of suitable local content and services for broadband users that are already daily connected an average of more than 4 hours and have habits of usage similar to mature markets, see "User Survey Analysis: Consumer Usage of Broadband, Internet and VoIP, Brazil, 2008". ]]> General Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:46:09 -0500
With cable speed tiers besting DSL in most markets, Comcast confirmed that approximately 66% of new cable modem customers are the result of customer defections from DSL services. But bundled pricing and promotional offers to stay competitive are eating into revenues: Average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) for cable modem customers was $41.74, down due to the effects of multi-service bundling, new lower speed tiers of service and new promotional offers. Comcast continues to gain traction with its broadband service, with 14.7 million customers and a penetration level of 30% of homes passed within its footprint.

In its telephony business, Comcast continued to gain very healthy 483K net new customers in the quarter, for a total of more than 6.1 million Comcast Digital Voice subs; revenues for its phone business grew 44%, to more than $690 million. Net adds for the quarter were down 29% year over year however, from 681K in 3Q07. As with high speed data, ARPU per voice subscriber was down 5%, due to the effects of bundling and promotional offers. Phone service has been an engine of growth for the cable operator and penetration stood at 13% of its homes passed footprint.

But the cable company continued to show weakness in its most mature business - video. Its main cable video services revenues increased 4% in the quarter and YTD, however it lost 147K basic cable subs in 3Q2008 and 342K year-to-date. Comcast executives indicated that they are seeing more competition from AT&T than from Verizon FiOS TV so far in their footprint, which is interesting. The bright spot in the video business for Comcast is the increase in net digital subscriber additions, up by 417K in the quarter, which puts digital penetration levels at almost 70% for the cable service provider. But as recent data indicate, two top U.S. telcos alone gained 465K total new video customers: AT&T with 232K and Verizon with 233K net new video additions. Comcast said that most of the churn was coming from single service video customers - those not bundled up with other services. Speaking of bundled offerings, approximately 22% of Comcast customers now subscribe to a three-service bundle, up from 15% year over year.

Capital Expenditures tell an interesting story: for the quarter, CapEx was $1.268 billion, down $160 million year-over-year; YTD CapEx was $3.877 billion, down almost $750 million year/year. Comcast said this was attributable to a number of factors, including better procurement, which has helped lower the cost per unit for the technology they are buying, as well as lower overall unit purchases. As the company has fewer net new connections due to slower overall growth in their various businesses, this translates directly to lower capital expenditures for technicians and truck rolls to homes for new service activation, the need for CSR support to handle incoming support calls, fewer set-top box and voice eMTA devices, etc., as well as less construction spending to extend their network into new housing developments. On the 3Q financial earnings conference call on Wednesday, Steve Burke, Comcast COO, said CapEx was down 16% quarter over quarter, but that Comcast would still continue to invest in their network transition to all-digital and to roll out ultra high-speed broadband (DOCSIS 3.0) technology to 20% of their footprint by year-end.

But the declining economic conditions in the U.S. are causing both service provider and vendor players in this space to issue warnings on their expectations for slower growth both in this quarter and into the first quarter of 2009. No one seems to have much clarity of vision past these two quarters and few are willing to comment further than to say they see slower growth into 2009 and that service growth (or decline) will depend on the duration and severity of the economic downturn.

Comcast's lower uptake of video services comes not only from growing competition from telcos, but also from the deteriorating economic environment and weakness in consumer spending. The company expects declining marginal increases in new customer adds in all service areas, and this will also directly affect demand for CPE devices, especially eMTAs that enable VoIP phone service, cable modems for high speed data services and digital set-top boxes with advanced features for DVR and HD. Said COO Steve Burke: "It's not that people who have our services are leaving, it's that there is less propensity to upgrade, less propensity to move and take our services when someone moves into town."

Gartner will issue updates to its reports on broadband access and other service provider infrastructure spending forecasts on a regional basis next month, which will reflect our assessment of these changing dynamics in the marketplace.]]> General Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:42:40 -0500 O3b Networks announced it was launching a new global network of 16 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, carrying 2,133 transponders and designed to offer IP and cellular backhaul for telcos and ISPs across the developing world. As was the case with a recent trans-Pacific submarine cable, most media coverage has swept past any other impact to focus on the fact that one of the new venture's backers was high-tech celebrity player Google. We don't necessarily disagree that "if Google did it, it's news," but let's look at the news on its own merit first.

Certainly, this is a significant announcement, comprising a substantial new satellite network backed by some known and unknown players - namely, Liberty Global, one of the world's largest cable operators, and HSBC, the financial giant with a history of self-provision for its IT needs. The release speaks of access to speeds up to 10 Gbps, with a total aggregate capacity of 160 Gbps. Most importantly, Gartner has learned that these will be Ka band satellites, which puts O3b's network infrastructure decision on the leading edge of the latest technology for these underserved regions. The use of Ka band has the potential to impact price, available capacity and network architecture for most of the regions announced for coverage.

Although it purports to serve "Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East" and the founders speak of "the next 3 billion," it is unlikely that this will be a global network to start with. O3b quotes five satellites as needed to provide "global" coverage, but that's more likely a bare minimum to blanket the southern hemisphere. At any rate, the 16 satellites announced in this launch pale in comparison to Globalstar's 48 LEOs and Iridium's 66. We tentatively believe this "Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East" network will focus its first phase on Africa. Such a focus would make sense, as this is easily the least penetrated telecom region in the world (and the fastest growing). The impact on pricing would be significant, assuming that O3b and its partners can bring the vision of a data/backhaul network to fruition on LEO-based satellites. The use of such a network for data is the key differentiator - the other incumbents may also be planning upgrades to capacity with this in mind, but only time (and perhaps the pressure brought by a successful new entrant in O3b) will tell.

With several new submarine cable projects under way for the region, which in total could dectuple the available bandwidth, satellite needed a competitive response. The immediate result for end users should be very beneficial in terms of lower prices, increased choice and access to new applications. Africa has historically been capacity-starved, and the easing of bandwidth constraints will bring not just more of the same old service to a larger base, but it will also enable the appearance of new services and applications that previously could not have been considered. Mobile VoIP is only one prominent example. Importantly, all the new cable construction has fostered growth of the open-access principle. This may finally displace the proprietary ownership and distribution of capacity by incumbent providers, with higher hopes for transparent pricing and market-based rules.

Now, back to Google. The search giant, which was rumored in recent weeks to be talking with carriers and other partners about a submarine cable, has now backed a satellite play for the world's underserved regions and populations. We believe Google's aim is largely to commoditize carrier strengths in the network, and reach users via its search portal to provide them with applications that keep them on Google's servers. Its vision is one in which folks with Internet can answer all their important needs through Google - Google has worked with carriers in the past, but overall, it seems to prefer a future in which operators don't differentiate against off-network traffic and are content to take their access fees like a good utility and stay out of the application arena. The open-access discussion we just referenced plays directly into this tactic. If Google can make even one dollar in increased ad revenues per user, using its search and location technologies to provide attractive targeting, then the population of Africa alone will make a large dent in the $100 billion target the company has set for its growth.

For more information, consult the Next Generation Satellite technology profile in "Network Service Provider Infrastructure Hype Cycle 2008".]]> General Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:31:01 -0500
As part of the service agreement, Glowpoint will provide management of the client's telepresence rooms in seven countries and will provide access to Glowpoint's video and telepresence infrastructure, including bridges, gateways, and unified communication capabilities through Glowpoint's TEN video services fabric. Glowpoint is supporting this next generation of video use as a way to help businesses communicate with other business communities through managed services and exchange capabilities. Glowpoint's TEN is a suite of services and applications designed to overcome the challenges of using video outside of a company's private network, such as interconnectivity and interoperability.

Many organizations struggle with suboptimal, internally managed videoconferencing environments, where the user experience is poor and costs are not well controlled. As a result, many organizations are now evaluating the available options for delivering video as an externally managed service and the potential benefits such an approach can bring (see Gartner research note "Managed Videoconferencing Services").

High-end immersive video telepresence solutions are almost never sold without an accompanying managed-service wrap. In this case, the managed services are as important to maintaining the user experience as the quality of the image and sound. In addition, using telepresence to conduct intercompany meetings with business partners, clients and customers is an interesting proposition for many organizations today (see Gartner research note "MarketScope for Video Telepresence Solutions, 2008"). Identifying partners and providers, such as Glowpoint, that can deliver the infrastructure and managed services in support of intercompany video communications is an important next step for those organizations.]]> Enterprise Services Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:48:54 -0500
Statistics from the FCC, Nielsen and others estimate that as many as 13 million to 17 million households could be analog-only over the air (OTA). The immediate net effect of the digital TV (DTV) transition is that television viewers with analog TV sets not connected to cable, satellite or telco-based pay-TV service will need to take action before 17 February 2009 to ensure their TV sets continue to work.

This means getting a digital TV that has a digital tuner, getting connected to a pay-TV service, or connecting the analog TV to an OTA converter. The U.S. Congress-sponsored "TV Converter Box Coupon Program" allows U.S. households to obtain up to two coupons, each worth $40. These coupons can be applied toward the cost of eligible converter boxes. As of August 2008, about 150 converter boxes had been approved for the program, which is administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA - see http://www.ntia.doc.gov).

Wilmington is the 135th largest television market in the U.S., with about 180,000 television households, according to Nielsen. It is located on the seacoast in the southern part of the state, and it is estimated that less than 10% of its viewers rely on OTA broadcasts to get their television programs. FCC officials reported receiving several hundred calls from local residents, many of whom did not know that the switch had taken place, while others reported trouble hooking up converters. Local news reported brisk sales of converter boxes and digital antennas at consumer electronics and big-box retailers. A bevy of officials from local, state and national organizations and media from all over the world were also on hand to witness and support the event, including:

• The FCC, the chief telecom regulator, which set up a call center
• The NTIA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce that oversees the government program responsible for issuing coupons to buy digital-to-analog converters for OTA TVs
• The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), a broadcast industry trade association that has been funding and conducting consumer workshops throughout the area to heighten the awareness of the early transition
• The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), which represents the CE manufacturers and which sent hundreds of converter boxes to nursing homes throughout Wilmington

The switch to digital broadcasting is a phenomenon occurring worldwide; however, each country is approaching it differently. Japan is switching to all-digital in 2011, while many European countries are either already there or in the midst of planning their transition. In the U.K., for example, the transition is taking place over three years and on a regional basis, whereas in the U.S., the DTV transition happens en masse nationwide on 17 February 2009 - in part due to the way the initiative is being funded.
The NTIA is administering the government-sponsored program for digital-to-analog (DTA) converter boxes. It has allocated almost US$2 billion of the auction fees to fund the public awareness and converter program for households that get their programming OTA. Those consumers with digital TV, those with TVs connected to cable and those with digital satellite pay-TV service won't need the OTA converters.

It is expected that there will be at least some technical or operational issues associated with the DTV transition, however. Not the least of these is consumer confusion, despite massive public service campaigns by broadcasters, cable and satellite TV providers on TV, radio and other media. There is the potential for problems related to changes in digital signal strength and contour vs. analog, as well as the ability of older indoor and outdoor antennas that won't handle digital signal, even with a digital converter - among other issues. In addition, due to the way the program for converters has been set up by the NTIA, nursing home residents will not be able to apply for government-sponsored coupons for DTA converters. While the policy is under review, it could mean that nursing home residents, depending on how they obtain their TV service, could have trouble receiving the digital broadcast signals on their TV sets.

While Wilmington is the first market to go digital, some markets have FCC permission to make the transition earlier than the February deadline (as early as November), especially those in northern climates where icy roads, snow and freezing temperatures might make the technical transition too difficult in the winter, especially the repositioning of TV transmitter equipment for digital transmissions.

Wilmington, however, is the only market that volunteered for the early test transition, so it will be interesting to see what the potential technical issues and challenges will be. It was selected in part due to its location, with terrain that is relatively flat and free of aerial obstructions that could compromise signals. Some are criticizing the timing, however -right in the middle of hurricane season - as this could compromise some residents' ability to get emergency alerts, evacuation orders and news bulletins. The statewide public broadcasting station that will continue to broadcast the analog signals which should get local residents through until after hurricane season ends, which is usually the first week of November. As there are very often power outages due to hurricanes, the converter boxes approved for this market have battery backup built in.

Digital TV transition is expected to be a boon for consumer electronics manufacturers of flat-panel LCD or plasma TV sets, in addition to spurring increased uptake of pay-TV subscriptions for the cable, satellite and telco TV offerings. There were about 112 million TV households in the U.S. in 2007, with about three TVs per household on average. While shipments of DTVs are strong according to the CEA (more than 32 million are expected to sell this year alone) there are still many legacy analog TV sets relegated to spare rooms, not connected to a digital set-top box and only using either indoor or outdoor aerial antenna. So the opportunity is quite substantial for a number of stakeholders.

There are a host of issues related to the DTV transition. Look for an upcoming report that outlines in more detail the implications of this technical milestone for cable operators in particular.

Recommended reading: Digital TV technology profile in "Network Service Provider Infrastructure Hype Cycle 2008."]]> General Tue, 09 Sep 2008 14:47:54 -0500 http://press.qwestapps.com/index.cfm?fa=press.view&pressReleaseId=56825) that Qwest provisioned at Mile High Stadium/Invesco Field, as well as the Pepsi Center, did not experience much, if any, issues or downtime. This should score in the win column for Qwest. But most outsiders would say that, being in Denver, which is where Qwest headquarters are located, this was expected. So Qwest was basically in a situation where it could not pull off a big-time win - just a big-time loss, which did not happen.

As we turn toward the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, next week, Qwest, again, will be providing voice, data and video capabilities to the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul (see http://press.qwestapps.com/index.cfm?fa=press.view&pressReleaseId=56820). Again, since Qwest is the predominant local provider in that region, it will be expected to deliver flawless service, and it will find it tough to gain positive credibility for a job well done.]]> General Fri, 29 Aug 2008 11:37:50 -0500
I've had the pleasure of interacting with Ben for a number of years, and while I can't claim to be a personal friend, I had developed a great deal of respect for him. When I knew Ben was going to be involved in a call or face-to-face meeting, I knew it would be a productive one. I came to look forward to these interactions, and we both learned from them. Ben had a great passion for Cisco (he was a 16-year veteran). But he never let that passion get in the way of the issues at hand. He never took Cisco's position for granted and was always willing to listen to and learn from different points of view and debate the issues. In times when the discussion became a little more confrontational (as they can between analyst and vendor), Ben was always a voice of reason. His thoughtful, open style had a strong steadying influence on everyone.

The link provides a more complete and fitting tribute to Ben's memory: http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_10309586?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com-www.mercurynews.com.

While this is a loss for our industry and for his colleagues at Cisco, our thoughts must focus on the young family he leaves behind.]]> General Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:38:51 -0500