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30 January, 2007 04:00 PM EST
Windows Vista – (Too) Great Expectations?
Posted By: David Mitchell Smith, VP and Gartner Fellow

Microsoft has done a good job promoting the consumer Vista launch. From a big launch event to promotions at retailers to guest appearances on TV by Bill Gates, the company has spared no expense. But, in some ways, is it may have done too well. By claiming that Vista is the biggest release since Windows 95, the company is inviting comparisons of the two launches. Few events have or could hope to match the excitement of Windows 95. And Vista (unlike XP and 95) is trying to replace a system that users are mostly happy with. This should not be underestimated. As much as there have been issues with XP, the installed base is generally happy.

Also, by highlighting that Office 2007 and Vista are shipping at the same time, the company risks the perception that both need to be installed at the same time, and, although reviews of Office 2007 are overall positive, there is still apprehension, largely as a result of the new ribbon UI.

One of the biggest areas that could be an issue is the crowds (or lack thereof) at the special retail events at 10 p.m. or midnight. Although retailers are leading this effort, the combination of the mostly happy XP users and the fact that this is the middle of winter, not the summertime launch of Win95, means we didn't see anywhere near the crowds that the introduction of Win95 brought. So, even if Vista ultimately is successful, which it eventually will be, it will have to overcome some expectations this week.

COMMENTS
30 January, 2007 10:42 PM EST
Mobutu Ubuntu
What other company in the world would have the hubris to arrogantly foist a product on its customers which is LESS THAN the one it is to replace? And then, cavalierly wonder why they don't bite?

ANSWER: The same company that spends $500 million on an old man in a blue jumpsuit talking to a guy in a bunny costume...on national television.

PREDICTION: The tipping point is now.
01 February, 2007 08:24 AM EST
I would agree with this. Why would you change something thats not broken to something untried and something that the rest of the world/industry has yet to build spare parts for? Also, MS have not been convincing in the business and commercial arguement. The London launch was really disappointing with Bill Gates just talking up the home. Most home users are not going to upgrade operating systems. How many times do consumers buy pc's with voucher upgrades and then fail to cash in the voucher. We have just gone past christmas with large scale purchasing of pc's and laptops. All with XP and Media Centre. The upgrade path of these machines is a clean install not an upgrade - a typical upgrade of XP with Office Pro takes 4 hours and thats if it works.
Further detail is on my blog http://blog.myspace.com/edd...
02 February, 2007 08:39 AM EST
Stuart McFarlane
From a consumer stand point, I *HAD* great expectations for Vista (currently running the beta version) ... then I saw the price(s). I'll be staying with XP or switching completely to Mac OS 10.5. Microsoft is being foolish in my view.
03 February, 2007 10:25 PM EST
Ben M
I upgraded from Media Center 2005 this week. The instant I saw the GUI (despite being prepared for it) I sat back and smiled, saying to myself "this is going to be fun." The upgrade took just under an hour. There's an issue with the Sigma Tel audio that I haven't worked out (I have 3 pc's, and this December Gateway purchase [GM5266e] was solely for fooling around with Vista. I love the Gadgets. My perspective is that of visual-oriented person: I don't care how many pixel-shaders my graphics card has, I just care about what I see on my monitor (Dell 2407WFP).

I must take exception to the earlier statement, regarding Office 2007/Vista, that Redmond " risks the perception that both need to be installed at the same time" - no one I have talked too mentions these 2 in the same breath, and you see very little 1/2 marketing for these 2 programs.

As for price, $159 upgrade for Home Premium, where does that fall in the value spectrum when you look at what people spend in other areas of their lives, like $3 coffee at Starbucks, $100-a-week-for-gas-SUV's, $50 for a season of inane TV shows, etc., and when you consider, as I do, that Vista is going to provide me with years of top-notch computing experience. Early adopters, such as myself, should reasonably have the mindset that hardware/software vendors will be doing some catching up with their drivers.

I agree that the XP-to-Vista change is not the watershed of earlier versions, but under the hood there is lots of good, new stuff going on, and on the surface is pure visual contentment.
08 February, 2007 10:09 PM EST
the vista aero desktop is a catch up move because XGL has been available on most linux desktop systems for over a year. Ubuntu/Suse/Fedora all have better desktop eye candy for a long time now. competition is good for the end user.

being old enough to remember the windows 3.14 days 95/2000 was a big jump, XP was an upgrade to 95/2000, Vista is just keeping up with the linux's
14 February, 2007 09:16 AM EST
MBS
I also have purchased the Gateway GM5266e (two of them, actually - one for professional audio recording, the other for general purpose use). I'm contemplating the Vista upgrade; however, I saw mention on the CompUSA website that a consumer reviewer had problems with the upgrade (drivers not installing etc.) and that that user's machine was subsequently unstable. Ben M - if you see this, what was your upgrading experience like?
17 February, 2007 10:24 AM EST
John Smith
Hi,

There is a major bug with OEM Installations of Vista that are pre-installed on many retails PCs and laptops. The problem prevents the user from renaming a file or folder they create on a network drive. Resulting in a folder called "New Folder" that can't be renamed unless it is access from a working installation on another PC (or an older OS such as XP). The problem is detailed here and there is no workaround other than installing retail version of Vista!

http://www.microsoft.com/wi...

Regards,

John
22 February, 2007 01:13 AM EST
I write on tech for Hindustan Times, a newspaper in Bombay, India. And have tested the Vista Beta and the final release of Vista Ultimate. Bells and whistles apart, I wonder why nobody is talking about the shrug given to Outlook Express? It was dull boring, and nothing remakrable. But it let me account two POP accounts and two HTTP accounts all in a single window. Windows Mail does not support HTTP accounts like Hotmail. Windows Live Mail Desktop, which does support HTTP, is a pain to migrate POP accounts to. This is the one and the only reason, I switched back to XP. Any third party clients that support both POP and HTTP? And that simply migrate from an existing client?
28 February, 2007 12:45 AM EST
i haven't read too much about vista, only what i need to as tech, however i have JUST loaded vista onto a test machine at it appears to me to be a lot of "much to do about nothing" .
it seems to be XP with an apple mac interface - big deal!!!
18 March, 2007 07:04 PM EST
I bought a new laptop this weekend and unfortunately it has VISTA HOME PREMIUM on it. It's a nightmare. I have spent hours trying to establish a network between two computers with no success. It seems I am not the only person to have this problem. I am considering dumping this system and reloading XP - it always worked for me. With all the brains at MICROSOFT you would think that they could launch a system that is an improvement over the last. I just started using Ubuntu recently and it is much more friendly and easier to deal with. HEADS UP GATES!!
30 March, 2007 08:49 AM EST
V.S.Prabhu
I can clearly see the strategy of Microsoft. Introducing VISTA will once again create a new software development boom. To my knowledge this will happen in the begining of 2010.

Where in MS will enforce all MS development community to adopt VISTA based development system.
30 March, 2007 10:57 PM EST
VISTA- Panoramic or pandemic? So how is Microsoft doing? Out of the gate(s)- 20 million copies vs 17 million for XP, not bad for the first two monhts. Well, maybe. 136 million PC's sold in 2001 vs 227 million in 2006 or penetration of 12.5 vs 9 percent- (source IDC & http://www.vista.sc.) XP was introduced as two versions and you could still buy 98 & ME. Vista has five versions and only XP Pro is still available. These are two months stats from launch though Vista was staggered over three months or total of five months (source http://www.microsoft.com). Interesting- current retail price for XP Pro and Vista- Biz $299 or upgrade $199.
Conclusion- Vista has not taken hold yet. Microsoft didn't see the forest for the trees- so not panoramic. Pandemic- yes, with little choice going forward. Impression- Vista could have addressed the growing need for a secure operating systems. Instead they opted for to be more intrusive and proprietary.
Outlook- Entering the "Put a swoosh on anything that moves" phase or in this case- computes. Sell brand, not better tech. So sad for an industry I've been watching since before there was a Microsoft-though complacency breeds opportunity. ATB
15 April, 2007 08:20 PM EST
victor
This verson of windows sucks, it it for the uture and it is not here as yet.
I cannot use any of my softwere including yahoo, or verizon games on demand without a problem.
This is a very goods futeristic program, but should not have been released b4 other vendors got up to speed.
I am now stuck with a big black box and my kids are asking me why they cant use the new computer.
I am very angry about this
17 April, 2007 10:34 AM EST
To Victor- It does take time having been through a few of these rollouts. I was there at the one for DOS with a younger Gates on the original IBM PC- promising to run MRP on it one day. I had just spent the weekend camped out with a new million dollar System 38 watching it languish though bills of material. All we wanted was one little report showing the foreman what to produce Monday morning. I must admit I was a bit skeptical too as I watched the little blinking red lights on a 10 MB Tandon hard drive and floppy. In comparison today, a Windows Vista PC can produce the same results in less than half an hour with full graphics on demand for the next week on ten times the number of orders & SKU’s. Unless someone plants the seed- there can be no flower. There is lots of opportunity in this new OS to grow some exciting new applications for your kids & I expect- their kids. A little patience can help. Rick- Asystematics.com
18 April, 2007 12:27 PM EST
Vi
I think O-Reily meant http://www.vista.sc ? They are right 20 milion copies is a huge number considering the launch of any product. We will just have to wait and see how many applications become certified or ready. Vi
17 August, 2007 04:51 PM EST
AUGUST 17, 07 - Thank goodness I still have my old HP pavilion with XP. Microsoft's Vista has turned my smooth running business into a disaster! Countless hours trying to fix multiple problems.
Shame on Microsoft for introducing such a piece of SHOT.
Tip: short their stock - Vista returns will bury them
R Jones
Wilmington, NC
05 September, 2007 06:24 PM EST
Having spent the last three months utilizing the new technologies available associated with Vista as well as the soon to come Longhorn, I can say there have been huge improvements for the network administrator. Windows Deployment Services, much more user friendly .admx and .adml files as well as the Windows PE imagex utility have made purchasing Vista Business worthwhile. Security it better, the interface is better, and Office 2007 allows for a more logical workflow.
13 November, 2007 09:22 PM EST
MIKE
I have been a dedicated PC user since 1995 when I purchased my first computer. With the release of Vista and the inevitable demise of xp just like '95,'98,'ME and 2000 I have decided to take a serious look at MAC and Frankly I am liking what I see. Yes, Vista will become sucessful if we want it or not because nothing else will be available with a new computer. DOnt you love have stuff you don't want shoved down your throat. Oh yeah the numbers being touted by Nicrosoft is bacause of all the manufacturers not the individuals and comparing sales to MAC should wait a couple of years to catch up with all the people who switch.
03 May, 2008 01:31 AM EST
bill
vista is ok, once you turn off all the junk. just like you had to do in xp, 98, 95 nt and god forbid ME.

Bring Back Microsoft BOB!
13 May, 2009 01:56 AM EST
I think when of the problems that made Vista seem slow is that it was installed with computers with less then 1 GB of RAM, and a slower CPU.

Vista is a okay OS once you tweaked it a little bit.