According to Information Week, Microsoft will roll out, later in October, an Express Upgrade program for Windows Vista, which is expected to be launched in 1Q07. With the program (note that this is based on rumor and not an official Microsoft announcement), PC buyers who purchase their machines with Windows XP stock-keeping units (SKUs) between 26 October 2006 and 15 March 2007 will receive a coupon for a free or discounted upgrade to Windows Vista, but will be responsible for upgrade costs. For a free upgrade, customers need to buy a PC with Windows XP Professional, XP Professional x64 Edition and Tablet PC Edition.

Most consumers are buying PCs with Windows XP Home Edition now, and they will have to pay a fee for their Vista upgrade: a $49 fee for upgrade to Vista Home Basic and a $79 fee for upgrade to Vista Home Premium. It is still unclear if there will be an upgrade fee for PCs bought with Windows Media Center Edition or if those machines will be entitled to a free upgrade coupon. Microsoft is launching this coupon upgrade program to help boost PC sales to consumers and small businesses this Christmas holiday season. PC industry players are worried about a decline in consumer PC sales in the holiday period, as consumers might delay their PC purchases until the Vista release.

Price to Move to Windows Vista for Consumers
• PCs bought in 4Q06: $49/$79 plus upgrade cost (most consumers will not be able to upgrade their PCs themselves and will have to pay a retailer or a reseller to do that)
• PCs bought in 1Q07: $0

Based on the above costs, it is doubtful whether the Express Upgrade program will be able to drive consumer PC sales this holiday season. But if the PCs bought with Windows Media Center will be entitled to a free upgrade coupon, then Microsoft could persuade some of the consumers to purchase Media Center PCs in the fourth quarter.

Most of the business buyers who will purchase their machines in the fourth quarter of 2006 will be entitled for a free Vista upgrade. That could persuade some small companies not to delay their purchases until the Vista launch date next year. However, it is doubtful that many of them will upgrade their new machines to Vista at a later time frame because of reasons similar to those of consumers. Companies that want the option to upgrade to Vista later on PCs they buy from the time the promotion starts should ensure that the PCs they purchase are eligible for the free/discounted upgrades to save the cost of buying an upgrade later.

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The question many PC enthusiasts have about these coupons is whether they will be valid for retail and oem versions of Windows OS without having to purchase an accompanying PC from a system builders. While the individual PC builders crowd is still considered a niche market, the top tier hardware they purchase is usually much more profitable than that in the general consumer and business market. If Microsoft forgoes coupons for retail versions of Windows, they will effectively ignoring this group.

I just hope that the MCE laptop I bought in early October will get a free or cheap upgrade to Windows Vista.

Any version of vista, you cant put a price on the support and updates you get having the latest version of windows. Sooner or later XP users will get neglected as Microsoft shifts to Vista, so for me Vista is a must have.

How about making Vista free to all MCE users who bought this year. please

The coupons might not boost sales above normal trends for this time of year, but they will probably help avoid a slump.

Gartner are earning themselves a reputation as inaccurate nay-sayers - is that what you people want?

Dell Small Biz had a good deal today (10/25) on some Dimension 9200 boxes (Core 2 Duo PCs for $529 shipped). It's a one day thing which is somewhat strange; usually they last 3 days or so. I was very close to buying and then came across this post. Ha! If you buy a PC today, no upgrade coupon for you (coupon applies to new PC purchases on or after 10/26). Nice try, Dell...I think I will wait now!

I've heard rumor that Microsoft will allow two hardware upgrades to your system under your current Vista contract. After that they will force you to upgrade your Vista contract once again. Is there any truth to this?

Most of my customers are complaining about the cost of upgradeing versus the cost of purchasing a new machine. I tell them to just go out and get a new $399 machine from Sams or Bestbuy. Vista is worth the price. I also had a machine to crash and did a re-install of the OS. I tried to activate Vista and had to call the help line. When we tried to activate the software, I typed in the wrong letters in Box E, without telling the phone support guy I had done it. He then told me exactly which box I had put the wrong numbers in. Can they do this? It scared the heck out of me.