The recent announcement by Warner that as of 30 June it would no longer manufacture its movies in the HD DVD format, choosing instead to distribute exclusively on Blu-ray discs, has created a blue funk in the HD DVD camp. The HD DVD Promotion Group canceled its event at CES, and the Toshiba press event seemed defensive in tone. The show floor tells the story. The HD DVD booth is a large booth at CES, and it had three people in it at one point today while the Blu-ray booth across the aisle was jammed with attendees. So, is it over? We answer that question with a "definite maybe," and here is why it is a maybe. One can ask why Warner shifted its allegiance and why Paramount shifted to HD DVD earlier this year, but few people know the real answer as these decisions are clearly driven by money and are the result of backroom discussions. The decision will happen based on these negotiations that involve royalty rates for the intellectual property that is licensed with each technology. Given the fact that the HD DVD consortium canceled its event at CES, it will be important for the consortium to put together a credible position and make a statement soon after CES is over, if they can put a credible story together after the Warner defection. The remaining wild card is NBC Universal. This studio has been a steadfast supporter of HD DVD and has yet to waiver as the format wars have raged. NBC Universal is a potential king maker. If it flips, the war is over as Paramount has already shown its willingness to move and will likely do so again if NBC Universal moves. Will this happen before the next Christmas buying season? Again, a definite maybe, as only those in the backroom know for sure, but the pall over HD DVD at CES may be telling.